Netease Sports reported on October 16:
With water on one side and flame on the other, the eight teams in the Dalian Division have to struggle for survival, while the eight teams in the Suzhou Division have to work hard for the championship.
Guangzhou Evergrande, Beijing
Guangzhou ever感染的, Beijing
Who will end up on the championship podium? Is it Evergrande’s 9th championship, or SIPG or Guoan’s 2nd championship, or Suning’s first championship? The final result will be announced on November 12, but this does not prevent us from analyzing and forecasting in advance.
Different from previous years, this year's league champions will be decided through the elimination rounds of the tournament system, a total of 3 rounds and 6 rounds of elimination.
There is a clear difference between the league system and the knockout system. The league system tests the overall strength of the team. At this level, Guangzhou Evergrande is obviously more suitable for the league system because they have the strongest overall, strongest lineup, and diversified tactics. Facing different opponents, there is a corresponding tactical system, which can play offensive football or counter-defense. In the knockout format, Evergrande will not suffer, but the advantages are not so obvious.
However, the knockout system is more friendly to defensive teams, and teams with good defense will also have a psychological advantage in the knockouts. At this level, SIPG, including Suning, will have more opportunities.
It should be noted that each round of the elimination round is two rounds. Although there are nominal home and away games, because they are concentrated in one division, there is no concept of away goals. If the two sides win and lose, they need Compare the number of goals. If they are still the same, overtime and penalty kicks are required.
Another X factor is the referee. From the perspective of the first stage of the league, individual teams are the beneficiaries of the referee’s penalties. It needs to be explained that this does not mean that these teams have done any public relations, or that the leaders of the Football Association have done anything. What is the hint, but the reason why these teams benefited is actually very important because the referees are "passionate": some referees will take care of individual teams in the hope of obtaining the so-called "recognition", and some referees are not. Will deliberately take care, but because of "worry", will be very concerned about the misjudgment of individual teams.
Once and again, individual teams naturally become beneficiaries. Therefore, this will also become a very important X factor in the second stage of the championship.
SIPG is the first in Group B. Its opponent Shanghai Shenhua in the first round is more likely to win. After all, Shenhua's situation is relatively bad, especially with many foreign aid problems. In the second round, SIPG has a high probability of playing against Suning, because Suning played against Chongqing Dangdai in the first round, and Dangdai lent its core foreign aid to R&F. The possibility of blocking Suning is very small. As for SIPG and Suning, SIPG has a clear advantage in past records.
Therefore, it is the least difficult for SIPG to advance to the finals, and opponents need to fight against each other. For example, Guoan must fight Luneng first, and the winner must fight Hengda before the final winner will enter the final.
The most optimistic situation is that Guoan defeated Luneng and Evergrande all the way to enter the final. SIPG played against Guoan in the final. Why is it the most optimistic? The reason is that SIPG has won 7 consecutive victories against Guoan in the previous 7 games and is the No. 1 "Guoan Nemesis".
Of course, SIPG is not without problems. The salary cut before the season once put the team into rotation. At that time, foreign players directly expressed their dissatisfaction. The team performed extremely badly in the warm-up match.
In the league, SIPG is also unstable, mainly due to a single tactic, always being tied or defeated by the middle and lower teams. In addition, the state of foreign aid Hulk is not very good. His playing time in the first stage is not very good. In addition, it is a contract year. He will leave SIPG at the end of the year. During the game, he has also changed his fierce playing style. It seems to have a taste of healthy football. In the past, SIPG’s tactical system was based on Hulk. At the core, this is a hidden worry for SIPG.
However, Hulk still maintained a minimum professional attitude and competitive state, and also scored 5 goals, the efficiency is still good, and Anautovic has found a sense, the new foreign aid Lopez and Muyi are also Yes, SIPG's strong foreign aid advantage will be an important weight for them to compete for the championship.
What are the core advantages of Evergrande? This starts with Cannavaro’s remarks. He said at the Evergrande media conference that Evergrande’s lineup is not the strongest, and in some places it is not as good as other teams. This sentence came out, many People think that SIPG’s foreign aid is stronger than Evergrande.
SIPG’s foreign aid is stronger than Evergrande. However, Evergrande also has naturalized players Jiang Guangtai and Exon, both of whom are foreign-aided, and Evergrande’s local players are actually stronger than SIPG. Look, Evergrande’s lineup is still stronger than SIPG. What's more, Evergrande’s lineup is definitely stronger than SIPG.
In terms of tactics, Evergrande can play offensive football and defensive counterattacks. Whether it is against weak or strong teams, the record is very good and the adaptability is stronger.
But these overall advantages will have obvious advantages in a normal league, but in the knockouts, this advantage will not be so obvious.
In the past two years, there have been 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss against Guoan, 2 wins and 2 losses against SIPG, and the winning rate is only 50%. For Evergrande, the first level and China are very easy, but then there is a high probability that Guoan and Guoan In SIPG's fight, whether it can win consecutively is unknown.
Therefore, Evergrande’s winning probability is actually slightly inferior to SIPG.
Evergrande’s probability of winning is not as good as SIPG. For Guoan, the probability of winning is even worse than Evergrande.
In terms of external factors, the schedule is the biggest difficulty for Guoan. To win the championship, Guoan needs to face the three hurdles of Luneng, Evergrande (high probability) and SIPG (high probability). Among them, Luneng is still the best to play. Originally, Luneng was also Guoan. Nemesis, from mid-2016 to the end of 2019, Guoan has not beaten Luneng for 40 months, but Luneng is currently suffering from domestic and foreign difficulties. Guoan's strength is superior, and it is reasonable to defeat Luneng.
But Evergrande is not easy to pass this level. More importantly, after Evergrande faces SIPG, as mentioned in the previous article, Guoan lost 7 consecutive games against SIPG in the last 7 games. Therefore, it is too difficult for Guoan to win the championship.
In fact, the best national security still has a chance, but it is obviously not the best national security now. From the first stage, the national security is certainly affected by the late return of foreign aid, but the team has never shown a stable state. Good times and bad. In addition, Guoan’s signings from last year to this year are very restrained, which seems to mean that the club’s investment is shrinking. All this shows that Guoan is not stable within.
Guoan's poor performance in the first stage, many media and fans have shirk the responsibility to the head coach, but in fact, the instability of Guoan is not just a problem for the head coach.
Among other teams, I am afraid that only Suning will have some opportunities. After all, Suning's overall strength is still very strong, and local players and foreign aid are also good. If it is a normal league, Suning will naturally have no chance, but this kind of knockout, three rounds When the game decides the champion, Suning naturally has some opportunities, especially since they have been playing well in defense.
Luneng’s chances are not great. This is also a problem of the schedule. Luneng needs to face Guoan, Evergrande (high probability) and SIPG (high probability), and may capsize at any time. In fact, Luneng’s strength is not bad, but it has just changed coaches. The club also has a shareholding change, which will definitely have a greater impact on the team's mentality, so the probability of Luneng winning the championship is small.
Shenhua's strength is not good, mainly because the foreign aid is not very good. Whether the new foreign aid can perform is also unknown. The key is that it is not easy for Shenhua to pass the Shanghai SIPG. Then it will face Suning with a high probability, and finally with a high probability. Evergrande is very difficult.
As for Chongqing Dangdai and Huaxia Fortune, there is basically no chance of winning. Chongqing Dangdai has rented core foreign aid and basically gave up. China Fortune is playing against Evergrande, Gao Lat avoids, and Zhang Chengdong is absent. China Fortune is very sad for Evergrande. turn off.
至于重庆当代和华夏财富，基本上没有获胜的机会。重庆当贷已租用核心外援并基本放弃。 《中国财富》正在与恒大对决，高拉回避了，张成东不在了。 《中国财富》让恒大感到非常难过。关掉。
In general, the 2020 season's championship will have a high probability between Shanghai SIPG and Evergrande. Guoan and Suning also have a smaller probability of winning.